As Warner Bros. completely shifts the release dates of The Batman, Wonder Woman 1984 and others, one film has remained firmly rooted in place. Christopher Nolan’s espionage thriller Tenet remains set for July 17th, curious considering the restrictions that are still in place due to the coronavirus outbreak. But as of now, there are no plans for the film to go anywhere, and according to Deadline that could lead to a massive opening weekend.
Here’s the deal: the report says some analysts are projecting a “possible” $100M opening weekend for Tenet. That would be massive under any circumstances, but especially when the world is in the midst of a pandemic. But as states such as Georgia institute plans to reopen some movie theaters on April 27th, Tenet is poised to be the one gigantic must-see movie event of the summer. The problem is that only a few states are considering these plans right now. And even in Georgia, which seems to be more bullish on moving past the pandemic (Way too early, if you ask me), they’re implementing “strict social distancing” guidelines, meaning no more than 10 people can be in a theater at a time. It’s unclear if those same theaters will even have time to rehire staff.
In the country’s two biggest markets, New York and Los Angeles, there are no such plans in the works yet. But let’s say that does happen, and major chains such as AMC and Cinemark open in June or early July, then Tenet is going to be pretty much the only show going. That said, NY and LA will need to be fully invested in this, and theater capacities will need to be much higher, at 50% or more, for $100M to be a possibility.
Keep an eye on this. Where Tenet goes will say a lot about Hollywood’s confidence in business post-outbreak.